Does Gender Equality Lead to Better-Performing Economies? A Bayesian Causal Map Approach

This study explores the existence of relationships between genderinequalities –represented by the components of the World Economic Forum (WEF)Global Gender Gap Index– and the major macroeconomic indicators. Therelationships within gender inequalities in education, the labour market, health andthe political arena, and between gender inequalities and gross macroeconomicaggregates were modelled with the Bayesian Causal Map, an effective tool that is usedto analyze cause-effect relations and conditional dependencies between variables. Adata set of 128 countries during the period 2007–2011 is used. Findings reveal thatsome inequalities have high levels of interaction with each other. In addition,eradicating gender inequalities is found to be associated with better economicperformance, mainly in the form of higher gross domestic product growth, investment,and competitiveness

A macro (Bayesian network) analysis of ethical behavior

This record include extended abstract from conference book ; Proceedings of the 38th Annual Macromarketing Conference Toronto, ON, Canada, June 4-7, 2013.Macromarketing scholars have long voiced the need for (particularly mezzo and macro-level) empirical investigation of ethical behavior. One of the earlier calls on this issue is made by Murphy and Laczniak (1981). More than ten years later, Laczniak (1993), once again, points out the need for "developing empirical traditions" in business/marketing ethics (p.93). The comprehensive review by Nill and Schibrowsky (2007) also suggests "more research to shed further light" on the ethical frameworks and theories developed over the decades (p. 271). In addition, the authors point out that the existing research has particularly taken a "micro/positive" perspective and macro and normative perspectives of ethics have received little attention. Finally, the authors made a special call for the need for macro level ethics studies by stating "we believe that macro articles provide an integral part in the development of marketing ethics field." [...

Toplumsal cinsiyet eşitliği daha iyi işleyen ekonomilere yol açar mı? Bayes nedensellik ağları analizi

This study explores the existence of relationships between gender inequalities –represented by the components of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Gender Gap Index– and the major macroeconomic indicators. The relationships within gender inequalities in education, the labour market, health and the political arena, and between gender inequalities and gross macroeconomic aggregates were modelled with the Bayesian Causal Map, an effective tool that is used to analyze cause-effect relations and conditional dependencies between variables. A data set of 128 countries during the period 2007–2011 is used. Findings reveal that some inequalities have high levels of interaction with each other. In addition, eradicating gender inequalities is found to be associated with better economic performance, mainly in the form of higher gross domestic product growth, investment, and competitiveness.Bu çalışmada Dünya Ekonomik Forumu (WEF) Küresel Cinsiyet Farkı İndeksi‘nin bileşenleri kullanılarak cinsiyet eşitsizliği ile temel makro ekonomik göstergeler arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Eşitsizlik, eğitim, işgücü piyasası, sağlık ve politika alanlarındaki cinsiyet eşitsizliği ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler, değişkenler arası nedensel ilişkileri incelemek için etkin bir yöntem olarak tanımlanabilecek Bayes Nedensel Ağları yardımı ile modellenmiş ve incelenmiştir. Bunun için 2007-2011 dönemini kapsayan zaman aralığında 128 ülkenin verileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular bazı alanlardaki eşitsizliklerin yüksek düzeyde birbiri ile ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Öte yandan, cinsiyet eşitsizliklerinin ortadan kaldırılmasının, özellikle ülkelerin GSMH, yatırımlar ve rekabet düzeyi açısından daha iyi ekonomik sonuçlara yol açacağı saptanmaktadır

Bayesian networks: a tool for macro-level analysis

The main objective of this paper is to give a brief introduction of the Bayesian Networks and to illustrate it using one of the major domains of macromarketing: ethics. Bayesian networks allow researchers to analyze a domain from a system perspective. It is considered one of the most powerful tools for observing system changes. The method can also deal with multiple variables at once, which can lead to efficient scenario analyses, critical for understanding how a system functions. We belive that the adaptation of this methodology by the macromar-keting researchers is likely to be beneficial for the theory and practice of macromarketing

Integrated supply chain and competitive facility location models

Önsel Ekici, Şule (Dogus Author) -- Conference full title: XIV.International Logistics And Supply Chain Congress, 1-2 Aralık 2016, İzmir.The optimization of supply chain networks plays a key role in determining the competitiveness of the whole supply chain. Therefore, during the last two decades, an increasing number of studies have focused on the optimization of the overall supply chain network. However, in most of these optimization studies, the structure of the network is considerably simplified and there is still a need for more comprehensive models that simultaneously capture many aspects that are relevant to real-world problems such as demand dynamics on the market. Facility location decisions—more specifically, decisions on the physical network structure of a supply chain network—are important factors affecting chain’s competitiveness, especially for the supply chains serving retail markets. However, supply chain network optimization models in the current literature ignore the impacts of network decisions on customer demand. Nevertheless, competitive facility location problems model only the distribution part of the supply chain, even though they have certain characteristics of supply chain networks and analyze the rival chains existing on the market. In this study, an integrated supply chain network optimization model based on the joint supply chain network optimization and competitive facility location models is proposed to analyze the results of ignoring the impacts of network decisions on customer demand. The unique unknown variable within the model is the demand. The demand at each customer zone is assumed to be determined by price and the utility function. The utility function is defined as the availability of same-day transportation from the distribution center to the customer zone

Logistics process improvement of Kapıkule Border crossing

Çekyay, Bora (Dogus Author) -- Önsel Ekici, Şule (Dogus Author) -- Özaydın, Özay (Dogus Author) -- Toktaş Palut, Peral (Dogus Author)In this study, logistics process improvement of Kapikule Border Crossing, one of the largest customs gates, has been evaluated. It is obvious that, any decrease in trade time is expected to realize positive impact on the logistics competitiveness of a specific country. In order to reduce time across all dimensions of the border process, the improvement of physical infrastructure and the proliferation of procedures are the most important issues that should be focused on. The aim of the study is to improve the Kapikule border crossing by reducing the process time. For this purpose, first, in-depth interviews were conducted with the Kapikule customs gate authorities in order to reveal explicitly the process flows. Subsequently, the current situation at the gate was simulated using the Arena simulation software. Finally, several improvement scenarios were tested to identify the ones that will have the highest impact on reducing the queues and the delays at the border

Analyzing competitiveness of automotive industry through cumulative belief degrees

Ülengin, Füsun (Dogus Author) -- Önsel, Şule (Dogus Author) -- Kabak, Özgür (Dogus Author) -- Conference full title: 10th International Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies inNuclear Science Conference, FLINS 2012; Istanbul; Turkey; 26 August 2012 through 29 August 2012This study aims to analyze the automotive industry from competitiveness perspective using a novel cumulative belief degrees (CBD) approach. For this purpose, a mathematical model based on CBD is proposed to quantify the relations among the variables in a system. This model is used to analyze the Turkish Automotive Industry through scenario analysis.SEDEFED (Federation of Industrial Associations), REF (TÜSİAD Sabanci University Competitiveness Forum), and OSD (Automotive Manufacturers Association

Fire station location selection for İstanbul

Makale Endüstri Mühendisliği dergisinin "YA/EM 2009 özel sayısı"nda yayımlanmıştır.Özellikle acil hizmetler veren polis, hastane, itfaiye gibi kurumlar için yer seçimi büyük önem taşımaktadır. Uygun bir yer seçimi gerçekleştirilmediği takdirde bunun sonuçları insan hayatını tehlikeye atabilir niteliktedir. İstanbul gibi büyük metropollerde, artan nüfus ve trafik yoğunluğunun yanı sıra bir de metropolün deprem kuşağında olması durumunda, itfaiye araçlarının olay yerine en hızlı şekilde ulaşması hayati önem taşımakta; bu da itfaiye istasyonu yerinin etkin seçimine kritik bir rol yüklemektedir. Bu çalışma; İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi tarafından kararlaştırıldığı gibi, itfaiye teşkilatının her bölgeye en çok beş dakikada erişebilmesi ve kapsama alanının %100 olması hedeflenerek yeni kurulacak olan itfaiye istasyonlarının küme kapsama modeli yardımıyla konumlandırılmasını içermektedir. Bu amaçla bir tamsayı programlama modeli kurulmuş, coğrafi bilgi sistemlerinden elde edilen verilerle model çözülmüş, seçilen yerler için itfaiye kurulması durumunda yangın hizmet düzeyinin değişimi incelenmiştir.For emergency services such as ambulance systems and fire departments, location selection plays a critical role due to the direct impact of these services on human lives. Timeliness plays a primary role in location selection decision of fire stations for large metropolitan cities such as Istanbul with increasing population with a high level of congestion coupled with an imminent earthquake risk. This study is based on a set-covering model for locating new fire stations, which target to serve each area at most in five minutes and improve their coverage area to 100% for Istanbul Municipality Fire Department. Accordingly, a set-covering model is built and solved using the data retrieved from geographical information systems. Finally the change in service level with proposed fire station locations is investigated and further suggestions are provided

Senaryo analizi için dinamik bir yaklaşım önerisi

This paper proposes a dynamic scenario analysis approach in order to understand the uncertainties about the future.  The development of alternative futures/scenarios is an important part of strategy making. This paper's objective is to propose an improved scenario analysis model based on Powell's scenario analysis approach, namely, EFAR (Extended Field Anomaly Relaxation) (Powell, 1997). This improved model is referred as REFAR (Revised EFAR) hereinafter and is expected to provide a useful guide both in public and private organizations, during their scenario planning activities. REFAR aims to eliminate the basic drawbacks of EFAR and improve its efficiency by the help of cognitive maps and artificial neural networks. In the application part of the research, REFAR is applied to Turkey's inflation analysis. Initially the probable scenarios are built, and the transitions between them are analysed. The basic scenarios finally reached through REFAR, the transition among each key scenarios as well as among the scenarios grouped under each key scenario are explained in detail. The scenarios within each key scenario clusters provide a detailed picture of all the possible futures that may be encountered. Using them, it is also possible to see the possible transition and the resulting changes that will occur within the other scenarios in the same key cluster and in the scenarios of other clusters that the scenario of interest is in direct relation with. Keywords: Cognitive mapping, neural networks, scenarios.Bu çalışmada, gelecekteki belirsizlikleri anlamaya yönelik olarak kullanılan senaryo analizi için dinamik bir yaklaşım önerilmektedir. Powell (1997) tarafından ortaya konan EFAR (Durum Bozukluklarının Giderilmesine Yönelik Bir Yaklaşım / Extended Field Anomaly Relaxation) modeli; senaryo analizine dinamik bir yapı kazandırmıştır. Ancak bazı zayıf yönleri mevcuttur ve geliştirilmeye açıktır. Bu amaçla, bu çalışmada EFAR yaklaşımındaki zayıf yönleri gidermeyi ve böylece onu, daha etkinleştirmeyi hedefleyen yeni bir model: REFAR (Düzeltilmiş / Revised EFAR) modeli önerilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bilişsel haritalar ve yapay sinir ağlarından yararlanılmıştır. Uygulamada REFAR modeli aracılığıyla, Türkiye’de enflasyon konusunda karar vericilere destek olabilecek nitelikte dinamik bir senaryo analiz yapısı oluşturulmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler: Bilişsel haritalar, senaryolar, yapay sinir ağları

A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey